NCAAF Projections
| SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11:00 PM  JMU JMU 313  Louisville LOU 314 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14 -14 | +14-108 -14.5+100 | 49%51% | ||||
11:30 PM  W. Illinois WIL  Northwestern NW | +28.5 -28.5 | +28.5 -28.5 | +28.5-110 -28.5-110 | |||||
11:30 PM  N. Illinois NIU 315  Maryland UMD 316 | +14.5 -14.5 | +16.5 -16.5 | +17-110 -16.5+100 | 56%44% | ||||
1:00 AM  Eastern Wash EW  Boise State BOISE | +24.5 -24.5 | +29.5 -29.5 | +29.5-110 -28.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  Virginia UVA 321  NC State NCST 322 | +4.5 -4.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-105 -2.5-110 | 36%64% | ||||
4:00 PM  Iowa IOWA 329  Iowa State ISU 330 | +2 -2 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-110 -3.5-102 | 19%81% | ||||
4:00 PM  Liberty LIB 325  Jax State JVST 326 | -7.5 +7.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5-110 +6.5-102 | 61%39% | ||||
4:00 PM  Baylor BAY 333  SMU SMU 334 | +6.5 -6.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-105 -2.5-109 | 42%58% | ||||
4:00 PM  UConn UCONN 331  Syracuse SYR 332 | +8.5 -8.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-105 -6.5-110 | 34%66% | ||||
4:00 PM  Illinois ILL 335  Duke DUKE 336 | -2.5 +2.5 | -3 +3 | -3-110 +3-105 | 78%22% | ||||
4:00 PM  E TA&M ETAM  Florida St FSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  NW State NWS  Minnesota MINN | N/A N/A | |||||||
+21.5 -21.5 | +21.5 -21.5 | +21.5-105 -22-105 | 63%37% | |||||
4:00 PM  FIU FIU 317  Penn State PSU 318 | +42.5 -42.5 | +41.5 -41.5 | +41.5-104 -41.5-110 | 77%23% | ||||
+45.5 -45.5 | +48.5 -48.5 | +48.5-105 -48.5-105 | 80%20% | |||||
4:00 PM  San Jose St SJSU 323  Texas TEX 324 | +37.5 -37.5 | +36.5 -36.5 | +36.5-105 -36.5-109 | 68%32% | ||||
4:00 PM  Kennesaw St KENN 337  Indiana IU 338 | +33.5 -33.5 | +35.5 -35.5 | +35.5-110 -35.5-105 | 80%20% | ||||
4:45 PM  Utah State USU 339  Texas A&M TA&M 340 | +32.5 -32.5 | +31.5 -31.5 | +31.5-108 -31.5-109 | 76%24% | ||||
6:00 PM  Howard HOW  Temple TEM | N/A N/A | |||||||
6:00 PM  W. Carolina WCU  Wake Forest WF | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:00 PM  Idaho State IDS  New Mexico UNM | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM  Texas St TXST 359  UTSA UTSA 360 | +5.5 -5.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +4.5-115 -3.5-105 | |||||
7:30 PM  Kansas KU 343  Missouri MIZ 344 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-105 -6.5-110 | 44%56% | ||||
7:30 PM  UAB UAB 345  Navy NAVY 346 | +21.5 -21.5 | +21 -21 | +21-110 -21.5-104 | 71%29% | ||||
7:30 PM  Grambling St GRA  Ohio State OSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM  Austin Peay APSU  Georgia UGA | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM  East Tenn ETSU  Tennessee TENN | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM  Gardner-Webb GWEB  GA Tech GT | N/A N/A | |||||||
-6.5 +6.5 | -10 +10 | -10.5-102 +10-110 | ||||||
7:30 PM  St. Francis (PA) STF  Buffalo BUFF | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM  Bryant U BRY  UMass MASS | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM  Lindenwood LIN  App State APP | N/A N/A | |||||||
+3 -3 | +3 -3 | +3-105 -3-108 | ||||||
7:30 PM  Miami (OH) M-OH 353  Rutgers RUT 354 | +15.5 -15.5 | +15.5 -15.5 | +14.5-102 -15.5-108 | 67%33% | ||||
7:30 PM  Troy TROY 351  Clemson CLEM 352 | +33.5 -33.5 | +33.5 -33.5 | +33.5-110 -33.5-105 | 73%27% | ||||
7:30 PM  Delaware DEL 361  Colorado COLO 362 | +24.5 -24.5 | +23.5 -23.5 | +23.5+100 -23.5-110 | 74%26% | ||||
+17.5 -17.5 | +21.5 -21.5 | +21.5-110 -21.5-105 | 76%24% | |||||
7:30 PM  Ole Miss MISS 341  Kentucky UK 342 | -9.5 +9.5 | -10 +10 | -10-108 +10-108 | 66%34% | ||||
7:30 PM  OK State OKST 357  Oregon ORE 358 | +23.5 -23.5 | +28.5 -28.5 | +28.5-105 -28.5-108 | 70%30% | ||||
8:00 PM  West Virginia WVU 365  Ohio OHIO 366 | -3 +3 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-105 +3.5-105 | |||||
8:00 PM  N. Iowa UNI  Wyoming WYO | N/A N/A | |||||||
+27.5 -27.5 | +28.5 -28.5 | +28.5-110 -28-105 | 64%36% | |||||
8:15 PM  S. Florida USF 367  Florida FLA 368 | +17.5 -17.5 | +17.5 -17.5 | +17.5-104 -18.5-107 | 65%35% | ||||
9:00 PM  Sac State SAC  Nevada NEV | N/A N/A | |||||||
9:00 PM  Jackson St JKST  Southern Miss USM | N/A N/A | |||||||
9:00 PM  Arkansas St ARST 369  Arkansas ARK 370 | +19.5 -19.5 | +23.5 -23.5 | +23.5-105 -23.5-110 | 68%32% | ||||
10:00 PM  Cal Poly CPS  Utah UTAH | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM  Campbell CAM  E. Carolina ECU | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM  NC Central NCC  Old Dominion ODU | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM  Florida A&M FAMU  FL Atlantic FAU | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM  Texas Southern TXSO  California CAL | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM  Missouri St MOST 373  Marshall MRSH 374 | +8.5 -8.5 | +10 -10 | +10-108 -10.5-105 | |||||
11:00 PM  Tulane TULN 381  S. Alabama USA 382 | -7.5 +7.5 | -10.5 +10.5 | -10.5-105 +10.5-110 | |||||
11:00 PM  B-Cookman BCU  Miami (FL) MIA | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  SC State SCS  S. Carolina SC | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  N. Colorado NOCO  Colorado St CSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  NC A&T NCAT  UCF UCF | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  Long Island LIU  E. Michigan EMU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  UNC UNC 375  Charlotte CHA 376 | -21.5 +21.5 | -13.5 +13.5 | -13.5-105 +13.5-110 | |||||
11:00 PM  Army ARMY 377  K State KSU 378 | +16.5 -16.5 | +17.5 -17.5 | +17-109 -17.5-102 | 66%34% | ||||
11:00 PM  Memphis MEM 379  Georgia State GAST 380 | -13.5 +13.5 | -13.5 +13.5 | -13.5-108 +13.5-105 | |||||
11:00 PM  W. Kentucky WKU 383  Toledo TOL 384 | +4.5 -4.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7-105 -7-110 | |||||
11:00 PM  Houston HOU 385  Rice RICE 386 | -14.5 +14.5 | -14 +14 | -14-109 +13.5-102 | |||||
11:30 PM  Boston Col BC 391  Michigan St MSU 392 | +3.5 -3.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +5-110 -4-112 | |||||
11:30 PM  GA Southern GASO 401  USC USC 402 | +24.5 -24.5 | +28.5 -28.5 | +28.5-105 -28.5-110 | 59%41% | ||||
11:30 PM  Michigan MICH 399  Oklahoma OU 400 | +2.5 -2.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +5.5-114 -4.5-110 | |||||
11:30 PM  S. Illinois SIU  Purdue PUR | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:30 PM  Charleston So CCH  Coastal Car CC | N/A N/A | |||||||
-10 +10 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5-110 +6.5-105 | ||||||
11:30 PM  Vanderbilt VAN 387  VA Tech VT 388 | +3 -3 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-110 -1-110 | |||||
11:30 PM  Akron AKR 395  Nebraska NEB 396 | +35.5 -35.5 | +34.5 -34.5 | +33.5-102 -34.5-105 | 81%19% | ||||
11:30 PM  LA Tech LT 389  LSU LSU 390 | +36.5 -36.5 | +37.5 -37.5 | +37.5-110 -37.5-105 | 85%15% | ||||
11:30 PM  Ball State BALL 393  Auburn AUB 394 | +42.5 -42.5 | +43.5 -43.5 | +44.5-110 -43.5-105 | 91%9% | ||||
11:45 PM  LA-Monroe ULM 403  Alabama BAMA 404 | +37.5 -37.5 | +37.5 -37.5 | +36.5-108 -37.5-105 | 72%28% | ||||
12:00 AM  UCLA UCLA 405  UNLV UNLV 406 | -1.5 +1.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -3-105 +2.5-102 | |||||
12:00 AM  McNeese St MCN  Louisiana UL | N/A N/A | |||||||
1:00 AM  Tulsa TLSA 407  N. Mexico St NMSU 408 | -1.5 +1.5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4.5-110 +5.5-110 | |||||
1:00 AM  TN-Martin TNM  UTEP UTEP | N/A N/A | |||||||
2:00 AM  Weber State WEB  Arizona ARI | N/A N/A | |||||||
+6.5 -6.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-108 -1-110 | ||||||
2:15 AM  Stanford STAN 409  BYU BYU 410 | +17.5 -17.5 | +20.5 -20.5 | +20.5-105 -20.5-110 | 39%61% | ||||
3:00 AM  UC Davis UCD  Washington WASH | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 AM  Sam Houston SHSU 371  Hawaii HAW 372 | +8.5 -8.5 | +7 -7 | +6.5-102 -7-105 |
A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAF bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAF projections that can be measured against lines in the market.
How NCAAF Projections Work
There are many ways to build NCAAF projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college football handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.
At The Action Network, our NCAAF projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.
We project the three big markets in NCAAF betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.
A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building college football projections to be aware of news and injuries.
The most important position in the football is quarterback, and it's not unreasonable to see a line move 4-5 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out on a Saturday morning. Other positions are less valuable to the spread, which might surprise a casual gambler. Notably, running backs -- even the very best ones in the country-- rarely move betting lines if they're unable to play for whatever reason.
Using those advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense/defense/special teams, player values, news, predicting home-field advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.
The Action Network's NCAAF Projections
Our NCAAF experts will provide consensus projections for every college football game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.
The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.
Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.
If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college football: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Georgia Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the Florida Gators. In that situation, a spread bet on Georgia would cash if they won by a touchdown or more. A bet on Alabama at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
Note that key numbers are important in projecting an edge in college football. Key numbers are just numbers that a game is likelier to land on because of the scoring in football: A 2-0 game is much less likely to occur than a 7-0 game. That means the difference between 6.5 and 7 on the spread is much more important than the difference between 12.5 and 13. The way we grade our NCAAF projections vs. the consensus accounts for these key numbers.
Key numbers are also important for totals, or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game. For a new bettor, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners game has a total of 64 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 63 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 65 or more.
Key numbers are also important in totals betting because, again, scoring isn't by ones, twos, or threes like it is for, say, basketball. Since touchdowns are worth seven points apiece (assuming the extra point is made), total numbers in multiples of sevens and threes are more likely to occur.
You don't have to worry about key numbers in moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright. Everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NCAAF projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Texas Tech Red Raiders are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Clemson Tigers, who are -290. If you bet $10 on Texas Tech and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on Clemson, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.
